Israel vs Hezbollah: But is a new conflict brewing in the Middle East?
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| Hizbollah members march with the bodies of two members killed in the Israeli attack. Photo: AFP |
Lebanon-based armed organization Hezbollah is preparing itself for any eventuality. As soon as such information spread, there were strong rumors that Hezbollah could be involved in a major conflict with Israel. The intensity and level of threats and counter-attacks by both sides that have been going on for the past several days have increased to such an extent that a fierce war can start at any time. The question has been raised in the international community that Israel and Hezbollah are really involved in the conflict.
After a statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 22, this fear has been further fueled. In the statement, Netanyahu said Israel would now shift its "military focus" from Gaza to Lebanon. He also said that the operation in Rafah has been stopped. But now it will be moved to Lebanon. Analysts estimate that regional and international parties will also be involved if Israel invades Lebanon.
About 100,000 people have been displaced by Israeli attacks in Lebanon over the past few months. At least 435 people were killed. Israel claims that 349 of them are members of Hezbollah. According to Israel, 15 Israeli soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed so far in armed attacks by Hezbollah along the Lebanese border.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year, both Israel and Hezbollah have been carrying out counter-attacks across the border. According to a report by Al Jazeera, a Qatar-based media outlet, from October 7 last year to June 21 this year, both sides carried out 7,400 attacks on both sides of the Lebanon-Israel border. Among them, 6 thousand 142 Israeli attacks in Lebanon and 1 thousand 258 Hezbollah attacks in Israel. 564 people were killed in these attacks.
Hizbollah chief Seyed Hassan Nasrallah has said his group will stop attacking Israel only when the country agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza, citing Israeli indiscriminate killings and destruction in Gaza over the past nine months. In this situation, analysts believe that if Israel deploys a large part of its military forces on the Lebanese border, Hezbollah will remain steadfast in its position.
Amal Saad, author of two books on Hezbollah, said, 'I don't think Hezbollah will accept any other decision except a ceasefire in Gaza. As a result, it can be said that if this is the case, the war will continue.
Amal Saad also said, 'Nasrullah said, they will continue fighting until Hamas wins. Even if Hamas is weakened, Hezbollah will not sit still. There is a strategic objective here. Hezbollah will never abandon Hamas.'
According to Israeli domestic politics, Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot agree to a cease-fire in Gaza now if he wants to. The reason is the strong demand of the hard-line leaders of the Netanyahu coalition to eliminate Hamas forever. As a result, Netanyahu is now at risk of losing power if the ceasefire goes away.
But there are doubts among Israeli officials about eliminating Hamas forever. According to them, Hamas is not just a group, it is an ideology. On June 19, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari and National Security Council head Zachi Hanebi made such comments. According to them, Hamas is the name of an ideology that can never be eradicated.
However, whether this reality is accepted or something else is considered—Israel is seeking to become more flexible or change its policy on Gaza. To this end, the country will continue its military offensive against Hamas in Gaza and at the same time seek political alternatives to Hamas in the region. The Israeli military will face the challenge of engaging on two fronts while de-escalating the aggression in Gaza and turning its attention to Lebanon. However, Israel says it is ready to deal with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah and his party continue to show strength and determination. On June 19, Nasrullah said that there are more than 100,000 fighters in his group. In addition, the leaders of other armed groups in the region offered him to send more troops to fight against Israel. But he also mentioned that he did not accept that proposal. As the reason, Nasrullah said that Hezbollah itself has enough troops to confront Israel.
A day before Nasrullah's speech, Hezbollah released a drone footage. The footage captured images of the Israeli port city of Haifa. Analysts say this is largely an unspoken threat, indicating that the city could be targeted by Hezbollah at any time.
Another recently released video shows multiple locations in Israel's interior and along the Mediterranean coast as possible targets for Hezbollah. Regarding this, Imad Salameh, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, said, "By releasing these videos, Hezbollah wants to warn Israel about the costs and consequences of the upcoming war."
Nasrallah had previously threatened the Mediterranean nation of Cyprus to stay away from Israel. In response, Cyprus said it would not provide military assistance to Israel in any conflict.
Seth Krumrich, a researcher at the US think tank Global Guardian Risk Management and a former US Special Forces officer, told Al-Jazeera, 'Cyprus has become a more important place for Israel since October 8. Because, earlier the Israeli reserve soldiers trained here and then went to Israel.
But Nasrullah's threat was not only to Cyprus but to the European Union. In this regard, Imad Salame said, "Nasrullah's threat was to the European Union, so that they refrain from supporting Israel."
If Israel eventually gets into a fight with Hezbollah, Hezbollah can immediately adopt several plans. Karim Emil Bitar, Professor of International Relations at St. Joseph University in Beirut, Lebanon, said, "Hezbollah's strategy is ready for short and long-term wars in southern Lebanon bordering Israel. Also, the strategy of the group seems to be determined for a large-scale war.'
Political scientist Imad Salameh has called this potential war between Israel and Hezbollah a 'low-intensity asymmetric war'. Which will bleed the enemy through low-cost, efficient and effective engagement. It is essentially a continuation of the current conflict.
It is believed that if a large-scale war breaks out, its intensity may spread throughout Lebanon. As seen earlier in 2006 during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. If that happens, Israel could attack Lebanon's strategic infrastructure—such as the Beirut airport.
According to some analysts, a limited-scale Israeli ground offensive in southern Lebanon is possible, although it could cause heavy casualties on both sides. In this regard, Emil Bitar says, 'Hizbullah probably does not want this. Hezbollah and the Iranian government realize that a war would be extremely risky and destructive for Lebanon.'
Hochstein told Hezbollah that it would be a mistake to assume the United States would prevent Israel from engaging in a large-scale war, a Western diplomat who spoke to US media outlet Axios on condition of anonymity said. At the same time, Hezbollah and Israel are exchanging messages through French diplomats, Bitar said, with both sides essentially examining an honorable exit strategy.
In this regard, Emil Bitar said, if it is possible to convince Israel in this discussion that Hezbollah's allies will not be stationed on Israel's border and that Hezbollah's Radwan forces will not be used to attack Israel, then the war may not proceed.
Although diplomatic efforts are underway, the fear is that a wrong decision could lead to war. Because neither side will allow their opponents to declare a moral victory. In addition, Hezbollah has remained steadfast in its demand for a cease-fire in Gaza as the only precondition for ending the war. Emil Bitar said, 'We are in a situation where both sides are considering their own political decisions.'
According to Emil Bitar, 'Hezbollah knows that a large part of the Lebanese people, including their supporters, do not want a new war. Both sides are taking such matters into consideration. But we are in a situation which is very dangerous. At this time, any wrong decision on both sides can start a terrible war in this region.'