How close is Iran to nuclear weapons?
How close is Iran to nuclear weapons?
A recurring theme in the damadol of the Iran-Israel conflict. Does Iran have nuclear weapons, or just how far is Iran from developing such weapons? In 2015, an agreement was reached with the world's leading countries on Iran's nuclear program. Which was known as Six Nation Talks. But with the passage of time due to various reasons that agreement became invalid.
After Donald Trump came to power, he pulled the US out of that agreement. Iran is believed to have accelerated its nuclear program after the US withdrawal. So that it is possible to make atomic bomb in a faster time. Although Iran has repeatedly denied such allegations, it says it is pursuing the program for peaceful uses.
The U.S. claims Iran agreed to the deal at the time, mainly to ensure time needed to collect or build other materials needed to build a nuclear bomb. The country wanted to buy at least a year of time through the deal.
Later in 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal and reimposed sanctions on Tehran, particularly on the country's oil. In response, Iran restarted its nuclear program in 2019 and took it much further.
Intelligence reports indicate that Iran has violated all terms of the previous agreement. Specifically, where, using what type of equipment, to what extent it can enrich uranium and how much enriched uranium it can stockpile—all these conditions have been violated by the country.
According to the latest report of the International Atomic Energy Agency or IAEA, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the nuclear agreement stated that Iran can stockpile only 202.8 kilograms of enriched uranium. But by February this year, Iran had stockpiled five and a half tons of enriched uranium.
According to the IAEA report, Iran has achieved the capability to enrich uranium up to 60 percent and the country has huge reserves of uranium enriched up to 60 percent. Even if the amount of uranium stockpiled could be further enriched, the country would be capable of producing at least two nuclear weapons.
This simply means that the so-called 'breakout time' for Iran, i.e. the time it would take to produce enough weapons grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, is close to zero. It will probably take a few weeks or a few days.
Worryingly, because Iran is not bound by the terms of the deal, the IAEA no longer has the right to inspect the entire infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program. As a result, speculation has also started about whether Iran has set up another secret enrichment facility. However, there is no specific evidence in this regard.
There are several important questions here besides making the atomic bomb. After making the first bomb, how long will it take the country to make the rest of the weapons and does the country have the ballistic missiles to carry those bombs? It is still unclear as to what extent Iran's technical knowledge in this matter has never been detailed.
According to a 2015 report published by the IAEA, Iran had a concerted plan to develop weapons and vehicles capable of carrying them. But it was closed in 2003. However, until 2009, Iran worked with many parts of this plan.
Analysts estimate that it could take months to years for Iran to develop nuclear weapons. In March 2023, then-US Army Chief General Mark Milley told the country's Congress that it would take several months for Iran to develop weapons. However, he did not mention the source on which he based this assessment.
The IAEA's report in February this year said, "Public statements about Iran's technological capability to develop nuclear weapons only heighten the Director-General's (IAEA) concerns about Iran's assurances and political will not to develop nuclear weapons."
Western diplomats say Iran's statements cast doubt on its progress toward developing nuclear weapons. Ali Akbar Salehi, the former head of Iran's nuclear program, compared building a nuclear weapon to building a car in a televised interview and said Iran knows how to build one.
Translated by Abdur Rahman from Reuters